973
FXUS63 KFGF 241942
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WIND GUSTING TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY, THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
..SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMER TEMPS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WORK INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN MOST AREAS, WITH SBCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 2500 TO 3000 J/KG BY EARLY EVENING.
MID LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT, BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 700 MB, LEADING
TO STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND A CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. IT IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT GIVEN THE TENDENCY TO
SPLIT, THESE SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO INTERACT AND EVENTUALLY
FORM CLUSTERS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR, TORNADO RISK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS
THAT AVOID INTERACTION WITH NEARBY CELLS. WITH DCAPE IN THE 1100 TO
1400 J/KG RANGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE SUPPORTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KTVF, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KDVL AND KFAR, WITH KGFK BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 THIS EVENING DUE TO EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS COULD IMPACT ALL SITES FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING HEADING INTO MID MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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