459
FXUS63 KFGF 251940
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
240 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM BAUDETTE
THRU BEMIDJI TO WADENA. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SLOW MOVING H5 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND AREAS SOUTH TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 2. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS END DURING THE EARLY MORNING, WITH DRY
WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGH TEMPS EACH AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON, MOST BEING VERY LIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW AND H5 TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AT
THIS TIME, THE BEST FORCING REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING, ALONG SMALL LOBES OF HIGHER
VORTICITY THAT ARE MOVING ALONG THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN H5 LOW, TO ALLOW A MENTION OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO ABOUT WADENA, MN.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, WITH
A LOWER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KDVL AND
KGFK, WITH OTHERWISE VFR CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN MVFR CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AT KBJI AND KTVF. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KBJI. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. KTVF HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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