998
FXUS63 KFGF 261930
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ALTHOUGH THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 1 MILE IS MINIMAL. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW, WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. MEAN CAPE
VALUES LOOK FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS
HAVE SOME PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN PORTIONS OF OUR WEST
ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME TEND TO RUN A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN REALITY,
SO WILL HOLD OFF MESSAGING BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COMING DOWN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP UNTIL A TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION MONDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE NBM
MEAN CAPE, BUT SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
THE MEAN VALUES, 500-1000 J/KG. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MESSAGE ANY SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND TIME
OF YEAR FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CLUSTERS
HAVE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON IN PARTS OF WESTERN MN, INCLUDING
AT KTVF AND KBJI. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A BIT
LONGER BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERING OUT SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TOMORROW
MORNING BUT NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP DOWN THIS EVENING BELOW 12 KTS, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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