589
FXUS63 KFGF 270439
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ALTHOUGH THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 1 MILE IS MINIMAL. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW, WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. MEAN CAPE
VALUES LOOK FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS
HAVE SOME PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN PORTIONS OF OUR WEST
ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME TEND TO RUN A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN REALITY,
SO WILL HOLD OFF MESSAGING BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COMING DOWN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP UNTIL A TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION MONDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE NBM
MEAN CAPE, BUT SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
THE MEAN VALUES, 500-1000 J/KG. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MESSAGE ANY SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND TIME
OF YEAR FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CLUSTERS
HAVE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH DRIER
AIR OFF THE SURFACE THAT COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AND IT WOULD
TEND TO BE VERY SHALLOW. NO GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OR IMPACTS IN EASTERN ND OR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS
TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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