497
FXUS63 KFGF 271721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ALTHOUGH THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 1 MILE IS MINIMAL. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW, WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. MEAN CAPE
VALUES LOOK FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS
HAVE SOME PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN PORTIONS OF OUR WEST
ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME TEND TO RUN A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN REALITY,
SO WILL HOLD OFF MESSAGING BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COMING DOWN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP UNTIL A TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION MONDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE NBM
MEAN CAPE, BUT SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
THE MEAN VALUES, 500-1000 J/KG. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MESSAGE ANY SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND TIME
OF YEAR FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CLUSTERS
HAVE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING NEAR KBJI AND SOME OF THE OTHER TAF SITES BUT BASES
ARE ABOVE 3000 FT AND THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT TIMES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST, PICKING UP
ON THE ND SIDE OF THE RIVER AND THE MORE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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