122
FXUS63 KFGF 271929
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
LATE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
AS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTS TO MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. A FEW OF OF THE MODELS HAVE A NARROW BAND OF 2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NOSING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND,
HREF UPDRAFT HELICITIES ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE, AND NBM BOX AND
WHISKER PLOTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND RANGE FROM NOTHING UP TO 1500
J/KG. THE MACHINE LEARNING HAS SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE
BRUSHING OUR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER FRIDAY, BUT HAVE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENDS UP, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING THE BEST CAPE VALUES WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHEN THE GOOD FORCING ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. ALL
THIS TO SAY, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO START MESSAGING SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT.
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING
AND UNKNOWN INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING NEAR KBJI AND SOME OF THE OTHER TAF SITES BUT BASES
ARE ABOVE 3000 FT AND THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT TIMES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST, PICKING UP
ON THE ND SIDE OF THE RIVER AND THE MORE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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