983
FXUS63 KFGF 281208
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS COMMENCED AS AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FROM
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH
OF THIS SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN SEVERE
STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE SHOWER AND
T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THEN ANOTHER
WAVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THESE WAVES, MAINLY THOUGH FOCUSED IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
AS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTS TO MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. A FEW OF OF THE MODELS HAVE A NARROW BAND OF 2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NOSING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND,
HREF UPDRAFT HELICITIES ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE, AND NBM BOX AND
WHISKER PLOTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND RANGE FROM NOTHING UP TO 1500
J/KG. THE MACHINE LEARNING HAS SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE
BRUSHING OUR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER FRIDAY, BUT HAVE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENDS UP, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING THE BEST CAPE VALUES WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHEN THE GOOD FORCING ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. ALL
THIS TO SAY, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO START MESSAGING SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT.
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING
AND UNKNOWN INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
UNSETTLED NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD. TODAY WILL START OFF QUIET WITH
LIGHT WIND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS DO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RRV AND WEST, MOSTLY INTO THE 10-15 KT SUSTAINED RANGE
WITH SOME GUSTS 20 KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...THINNER CIRRUS
EAST THEN THICKER MID CLOUDS SPREADING INTO DVL BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL WATCH THE ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK TO SEE HOW FAR EAST IT
CAN GET TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THOUGHT CHANCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SHOWER INTO DEVILS LAKE TAF SITE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS
WHEN TRYING TO PIN DOWN TIMING AT ANY ONE SITE IS QUITE
DIFFICULT AND BEST TO WAIT ON THE NEXT SET OF TAFS TO FINE TUNE
TIMING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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