716
FXUS63 KFGF 281718
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
AS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTS TO MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. A FEW OF OF THE MODELS HAVE A NARROW BAND OF 2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NOSING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND,
HREF UPDRAFT HELICITIES ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE, AND NBM BOX AND
WHISKER PLOTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND RANGE FROM NOTHING UP TO 1500
J/KG. THE MACHINE LEARNING HAS SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE
BRUSHING OUR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER FRIDAY, BUT HAVE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENDS UP, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING THE BEST CAPE VALUES WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHEN THE GOOD FORCING ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. ALL
THIS TO SAY, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO START MESSAGING SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT.
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING
AND UNKNOWN INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
TOMORROW MORNING OUT EAST IN BJI WHERE MOIST FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A PASSING LOW SHOULD SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. WINDS REMAINING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST OVERALL AND LIGHT AT 5-10KTS FOR MOST BUT SOME
12-15KT POCKETS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY 00Z WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT CHOOSE TO PREVAIL
SHOWERS FOR NOW AND VCTS WHERE APPLICABLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LOCATION OF THUNDER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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