145
FXUS63 KFGF 301924
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH A PRIMARY WIND THREAT.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING IS NOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH MT/ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS WAVE
WILL COME SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW TOMORROW
ALONG THE INTL BORDER. BEYOND THESE THREATS THE 0.25-0.5" RAINS
NORTH OF HWY 200 TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME AND BENEFICIAL TO
EASING THE WORSENING DROUGHT. IT MAY EVEN PUT A SHORT STOP TO THE
ONGOING WHEAT/SUGAR BEET HARVEST. MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
- TODAY
THE STRONG FORCING OF THE 500MB IN MT IS ALREADY PROVING TO BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MT DESPITE MODEST MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG OUT THERE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND GROW
UPSCALE THEY WILL WORK INTO A MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS WEST OF THE US-83
CORRIDOR WITH SIG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN DECREASING MUCAPE AND INSTABILITY WITH
TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE IN OUR AREA AROUND 8-10PM
AND MIDNIGHT IN THE RRV. THIS COMES WITH A CAVEAT HOWEVER, MANY CAMS
ARE DEPICTING A BUBBLE OF MUCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
RRV THAT SHOULD STORMS ENTER IT WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION THEY
MAY INTENSIFY SUPPORTING 60-70MPH GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS SCENARIO IS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGHER IMPACT AND WORTH
MENTIONING. OVERALL GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CAPE (0-3KM) QLCS TORNADOS SEEM UNLIKELY BUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF STORMS REMAIN MORE ORGANIZED WITH A BALANCED UDCZ. OVERALL AS
LONG AS A LINEAR MODE PREVAILS HAIL IS A LOW THREAT.
- MONDAY WIND
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LAKE MANITOBA AND LAKE
WINNIPEG STRONG W/SW WINDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW. EFI DOES PICK UP ON THIS NICELY WITH SOME SHADING OVER
THE 0.9 THRESHOLD FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH SEEMS TO CORRESPOND NICELY
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR US HISTORICALLY, ANECDOTALLY
SPEAKING. GIVEN A MODEST BL DEPTH TO AROUND 800MB AND FLOW WITHIN
THAT LAYER OF 30-40KTS ONLY MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
ONSET OF PEAK DIURNAL MIXING THINKING THAT GETTING GUSTS FROM
HIGHER ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. THE RESULT IS TO
EXPECT GUSTS OF 30-40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND ESPECIALLY THE LANGDON BOWL BUT THE PEAK POTENTIAL WITH
GUSTS NEARING 45-50KTS SEEMS UNREALISTIC. A FEW SCENARIOS DO BRING
BRING MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT BEING SHOWN BY THE NBM WITH
RESULTING MINRH IN THE 25-30% RANGE OVERLAPPING WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25KTS (MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA) WITH MINRH CLOSER TO 35%
OVERLAPPING WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS IN THE NORTHERN RRV. OVERALL THE
STATE OF THE FUELS SEEMS UNLIKELY SUPPORT FAST FIRE SPREAD BUT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SEEMS ON THE TABLE. TRUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SEEM UNATTAINABLE AT THIS TIME.
- WORK WEEK
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. MACHINE LEARNING DOES
INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH A LARGE
SPATIAL SPREAD DAY TO DAY LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE AT THE THIS TIME
IN IMPACTS. OVERALL SEASONAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE
PASSING SHORTWAVES AMID SW FLOW DO CONCEPTUALLY SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CONDITIONS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BJI IFR AND ALL OTHERS VFR (SOME SCT CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
STILL). CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN ALL AREAS
REACHING VFR FOR THE EVENING BUT A RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLL THROUGH IS EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING
MORE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
FOR ALL. DVL AND GFK MAY SEE GUSTS OVER 30KTS TOMORROW BUT
MOSTLY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING, TRIED TO TIME IT OUT IN TAFS BUT AMD
WILL STILL BE NEEDED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-026-027-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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