782
FXUS63 KFGF 302337
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH A PRIMARY WIND THREAT.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, WHICH IS STILL NEAR OR EVEN WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AND ML CAPE IN THAT AREA
HAS JUMPED UP TO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN INSTABILITY AS THE LINE TO THE WEST APPROACHES AROUND THE 9
PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE MORE SOUTHERLY CELLS AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
OVERALL, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE UPDRAFT HELICITY TRENDS HAVE A
DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
OUR DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE WESTERN RED
RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE SOME 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS IF THE LINE
OF STORMS IS STRONGER THAN CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND MAINTAINS
ITSELF INTO OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING IS NOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH MT/ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS WAVE
WILL COME SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW TOMORROW
ALONG THE INTL BORDER. BEYOND THESE THREATS THE 0.25-0.5" RAINS
NORTH OF HWY 200 TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME AND BENEFICIAL TO
EASING THE WORSENING DROUGHT. IT MAY EVEN PUT A SHORT STOP TO THE
ONGOING WHEAT/SUGAR BEET HARVEST. MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
- TODAY
THE STRONG FORCING OF THE 500MB IN MT IS ALREADY PROVING TO BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MT DESPITE MODEST MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG OUT THERE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND GROW
UPSCALE THEY WILL WORK INTO A MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS WEST OF THE US-83
CORRIDOR WITH SIG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN DECREASING MUCAPE AND INSTABILITY WITH
TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE IN OUR AREA AROUND 8-10PM
AND MIDNIGHT IN THE RRV. THIS COMES WITH A CAVEAT HOWEVER, MANY CAMS
ARE DEPICTING A BUBBLE OF MUCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
RRV THAT SHOULD STORMS ENTER IT WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION THEY
MAY INTENSIFY SUPPORTING 60-70MPH GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS SCENARIO IS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGHER IMPACT AND WORTH
MENTIONING. OVERALL GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CAPE (0-3KM) QLCS TORNADOS SEEM UNLIKELY BUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF STORMS REMAIN MORE ORGANIZED WITH A BALANCED UDCZ. OVERALL AS
LONG AS A LINEAR MODE PREVAILS HAIL IS A LOW THREAT.
- MONDAY WIND
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LAKE MANITOBA AND LAKE
WINNIPEG STRONG W/SW WINDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW. EFI DOES PICK UP ON THIS NICELY WITH SOME SHADING OVER
THE 0.9 THRESHOLD FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH SEEMS TO CORRESPOND NICELY
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR US HISTORICALLY, ANECDOTALLY
SPEAKING. GIVEN A MODEST BL DEPTH TO AROUND 800MB AND FLOW WITHIN
THAT LAYER OF 30-40KTS ONLY MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
ONSET OF PEAK DIURNAL MIXING THINKING THAT GETTING GUSTS FROM
HIGHER ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. THE RESULT IS TO
EXPECT GUSTS OF 30-40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND ESPECIALLY THE LANGDON BOWL BUT THE PEAK POTENTIAL WITH
GUSTS NEARING 45-50KTS SEEMS UNREALISTIC. A FEW SCENARIOS DO BRING
BRING MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT BEING SHOWN BY THE NBM WITH
RESULTING MINRH IN THE 25-30% RANGE OVERLAPPING WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25KTS (MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA) WITH MINRH CLOSER TO 35%
OVERLAPPING WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS IN THE NORTHERN RRV. OVERALL THE
STATE OF THE FUELS SEEMS UNLIKELY SUPPORT FAST FIRE SPREAD BUT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SEEMS ON THE TABLE. TRUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SEEM UNATTAINABLE AT THIS TIME.
- WORK WEEK
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. MACHINE LEARNING DOES
INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH A LARGE
SPATIAL SPREAD DAY TO DAY LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE AT THE THIS TIME
IN IMPACTS. OVERALL SEASONAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE
PASSING SHORTWAVES AMID SW FLOW DO CONCEPTUALLY SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MOST OF THE TAF SITES HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT, AND
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE MOVING INTO KGFK AREA AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. THESE CELLS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WEST NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MAIN
PERIOD OF CONVECTION FOR OUR AIRPORTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 03
TO 08Z TIME FRAME, STARTING SOONEST AT KDVL AND ENDING LATER AT
THE MN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIER CELLS TO REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AT
THIS POINT, BUT HAVE VCTS OR PREVAILING THUNDER AND MVFR
CEILINGS WITH CB. SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST BEHIND
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
FAIRLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS
AT KGFK AND KFAR, AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT KDVL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-026-027-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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