857
FXUS63 KFGF 021855
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
155 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A
LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
- LATE SUMMER HEAT FORECAST TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVED THOUGH, BUT FAIRLY
TRANQUIL NOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INSTABILITY
PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST, AND A
LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING OUT FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION TOMORROW. BLOCKY
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER OUR AREA. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST AND SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION,
WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF MEMBERS
AGREEING WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE KEEPS US IN RIDGING
OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
..SEVERE CHANCES THURSDAY
BOTH THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY GETS TOMORROW
AND WHERE AND WHEN THEY BREAK OUT CONVECTION. A FEW LIKE THE NAM
KEEP MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED CAPE SOUTH OF THE SD BORDER,
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY ALL THE WAY UP
TO HIGHWAY 200. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT, AS
SEVERAL OF THE CAMS BRING OUT SOME STORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE. SOME
OF THE CAMS INTENSIFY THE EARLY ACTIVITY FAIRLY QUICKLY
TOMORROW, WITH UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS STARTING TO SHOW UP
BEFORE 18Z, WHILE OTHER MODELS DON'T HAVE ANYTHING UNTIL THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE COMES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION, SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
RECOVERY TIME TO GET OVER 2000 J/KG ML CAPE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
STORM MODE IS ALSO NOT WELL RESOLVED, WITH SEVERAL CAMS SHOWING
LINEAR STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE
HRRR HAVE A MUCH MORE CURVED HODOGRAPH AND SUPERCELLS. AT THIS
POINT, ALL SEVERE IMPACTS ARE ON THE TABLE, AND WILL SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
..HEAT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF EFI SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WARM TEMPS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. APPARENT TEMPS DO
NOT GET ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA UNLESS LOOKING AT THE MAX
PERCENTILE MEMBERS, BUT THE WET BULB GLOBE GETS INTO THE 80S AND
HEAT RISK IS UP INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAY NOT NEED HEADLINES ESPECIALLY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SUMMER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME
CIRRUS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM LESS THAN 8 KTS TO 10 TO 15
KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page