239
FXUS63 KFGF 031941
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM NEAR
THE MT BORDER THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MN, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT
THAT IS BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 2 AND HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDORS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST, WITH CONTINUED
ACTIVE WEATHER UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH EAST
THURSDAY AND LEAVE THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
..CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN ND IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE ELEVATED, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN ON SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH MIXING TO GET A FEW 60 AND EVEN 70 MPH REPORTS TO THE
SURFACE. THE SHEAR AT 0-3KM IS FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADO SPIN
UPS ALONG SOME KINKS IN THE LINE, BUT WOULD NEED TO GET SOME
BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING BEFORE THAT COULD HAPPEN. THINK
THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE EVENTUALLY WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. EVEN IF WE DON'T GET A FULLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH CONTINUED LIFT, GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 50 KTS, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
FEEDING INTO THE COMPLEX, EXPECT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
STORMS AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 70
MPH.
..STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTER A BREAK TOMORROW, ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SOME ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND THERE SHOULD BE GOOD INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG THIS WEEKEND AS TODAY, BUT AT
30 KTS COULD STILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
MACHINE LEARNING HAS SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE IMPACTS
FOR THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAYS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE KDVL AND KGFK AREAS, WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION CURRENTLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
AFFECTING KTVF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY
AT KBJI AND KFAR, SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS PROB30 FOR
NOW. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR TAF
SITES BY LATE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE CONVECTION, STARTING JUST BEFORE 06Z AT KDVL AND PUSHING EASTWARD
TO KGFK AND THE MN AIRPORTS LATER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KEPT KFAR AT VFR FOR NOW, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE STRATUS GOES. WINDS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
OUTSIDE OF THAT ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page