682
FXUS63 KFGF 041941
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ON AND OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME PROBABILITY OF
FOG REDEVELOPING IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS RUNNING
UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT WITH ONE OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES,
WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FLOW
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. UPPER TROUGHING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY AND THEN OFF
TO THE EAST AFTER, LEAVING THE AREA IN NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.
..SEVERE CHANCES OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE COMES IN
TONIGHT, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MOVE. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE
SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ND AFTER 10Z TONIGHT, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE SHOWERS OR NOTHING
AT ALL. THE HREF HAS SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (10 PERCENT) OF
STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SO CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED HAILERS BUT NOT SUPER
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 25 KTS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ND, ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW PREVIOUS CONVECTION PLAYS
OUT AND EXACT TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED WAVES. BEST SHEAR WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
IN SHORT, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT EXACTLY
WHERE AND WHEN ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
CEILINGS AT 800 FT CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE KBJI AREA, BUT
BASED ON SATELLITE SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT, WITH SOME VARIABILITY
AS THEY COME AROUND. SOME FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY,
MOST LIKELY IN OUR FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT IN NORTHEASTERN ND. CONSIDERING THE GOOD PROBABILITY
OF LESS THAN 3 MILES VISIBILITY PUT KBJI DOWN TO 2SM FOR A TIME
TOMORROW MORNING, AND COULD GET EVEN LOWER. AT THIS POINT FOG
IS NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE OTHER TAF SITES. ALL
AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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