310
FXUS63 KFGF 051737
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
TINY VORTICITY MAX IN NORTHEASTERN ND CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE CWA, MOSTLY ELEVATED WITH
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE. CAMS HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTE GARBAGE
HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME RIPPLES ON
WATER VAPOR INDICATING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES COMING UP THE
RIDGE IN OUR DIRECTION. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FAIRLY
STOUT UPDRAFTS IF WE CAN GET SOME DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN WHEN
THE CURRENT CONVECTION CLEARS OUT AND THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES PULSE UP IT WILL LIKELY BE
POORLY ORGANIZED, WITH THE MAIN THREATS HAIL UP PING PONG BALL
SIZED AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WATCHING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTH CENTRAL ND AND FAR
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING THESE STRONGER STORMS INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS COULD INCLUDE
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS DRIVEN BY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET HELPING
ADVECT AND LIFT HIGHER MOISTURE OUT OF SD INTO ND.
WHILE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS CONVECTION, THERE ARE
NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF STORMS WITHIN GUIDANCE. A
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE OTHER
CLUSTER KEEPING STORMS WEAK. THIS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN DEGREE OF FORCING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
NOT BEING PARTICULARLY STRONG. SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROBUST,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY, FAVORABLE SHEAR ORIENTATION, AS WELL AS THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.
FURTHER EXPANDING UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LARGE HAIL MAY GET SHOULD
HAIL PRODUCTION OCCUR. SOUNDINGS IN THE FORECAST NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT HAVE CONCERNINGLY NUMEROUS ANALOGS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AT LEAST 2 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED SCENARIO
(MAINLY DUE TO EXPECTATION OF FORCING TO SUSTAIN ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE), IT IS SOMETHING TO BE
MINDFUL OF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ON AND OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME PROBABILITY OF
FOG REDEVELOPING IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS RUNNING
UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT WITH ONE OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES,
WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FLOW
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. UPPER TROUGHING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY AND THEN OFF
TO THE EAST AFTER, LEAVING THE AREA IN NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.
..SEVERE CHANCES OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE COMES IN
TONIGHT, AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MOVE. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE
SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ND AFTER 10Z TONIGHT, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE SHOWERS OR NOTHING
AT ALL. THE HREF HAS SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (10 PERCENT) OF
STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SO CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED HAILERS BUT NOT SUPER
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 25 KTS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ND, ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW PREVIOUS CONVECTION PLAYS
OUT AND EXACT TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED WAVES. BEST SHEAR WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
IN SHORT, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT EXACTLY
WHERE AND WHEN ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE KGFK AREA AND MOVING INTO KTVF. KDVL
HAS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ALSO SEEM ON TRACK TOWARDS
KBJI, SO HAVE VCTS MENTION THERE BUT WILL STAY NORTH OF KFAR.
MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LOW
STRATUS OR FOG GOING INTO THE KBJI AREA LATER TONIGHT, BUT
PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY ONLY 20 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP VFR FOR
NOW. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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