004
FXUS63 KFGF 191749
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PREDOMINATELY DRY PERIOD COMING UP THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ARE SLOWLY WANING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. IN
THESE SHOWERS WAKE, STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE UP NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA,
A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES AREA
WIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN IN ITS WAKE DROP TO BECOME A
BIT COOLER, IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
BIT COOLER EARLY IN THE WEEK, AS LOWER HEIGHTS DUE TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY
TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS THE WEEK WEARS
ON, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EITHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL. IN EITHER SCENARIO,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS
LEADS TO HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE AND WHERE WE END UP IN RELATION TO THE RIDGE AXIS. IF
WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OR IN MORE ZONAL FLOW, A
FEW WEAK WAVES MAY TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE, IF THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND IS MORE OR LESS CENTERED OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
..RAIN TODAY, FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RAIN IS SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE FA. IN ITS WAKE, SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING
DRIZZLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION UP TO 2 KM IN DEPTH PERSISTING
INTO TONIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THEREFORE, PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL BURN OFF SATURDAY
MORNING, AS FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT LOCATIONS (WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND), IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THINK CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR THIS EVENING,
THEN EVENTUALLY ALL VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT
THE THE PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE AT THE TAF
SITES ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT, SO WILL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OUT FOR NOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHEASTERLY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND THEN
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT MOST
AIRPORTS WILL SEE LESS THAN 12 KTS IN SPEED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...JR
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