888
FXUS63 KFGF 201725
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST CHANCE EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FOR NORTHWEST
MN.
- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A DRY PERIOD AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SPLIT FLOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER
ID/UT, AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING DOWN OVER OUR REGION HAS BROUGHT A FEW WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT,
PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S. THE UPPER LOW WILL COME EASTWARD INTO SD
AND NEB TOMORROW, BRINGING CLOUDS BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW PULLS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OF US ON MONDAY, WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
MID-WEEK. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A SHORTWAVE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, WITH
RIDGING TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AFTER THAT.
..LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING DOWN HAVE
DISSIPATED, BUT MANY OF THE CAMS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP,
HAVE REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW STILL OUT OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO COME EAST INTO
THE PLAINS, BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
IMPACTS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEAR THE SD BORDER HAVE ANY PROBABILITY OF 0.01 OF RAIN, AND
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THAT. SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, BUT A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DECENT PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 0.01 OF
RAIN, BUT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SOME IFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND KTVF, BUT THAT SHOULD SCATTER
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OTHER TAF SITES HAVE ALREADY GONE
VFR. BIGGEST QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET FOG REDEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE, BUT
PERFORMED POORLY LAST NIGHT. BEST CHANCES THE HREF HAS FOR FOG
PROBABILITY AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF A MILE ARE AT KGFK
AND KBJI AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THINK THERE WILL BE FOG SOMEWHERE
WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE. FOR NOW HAVE 2-3SM VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS TOMORROW
MORNING AT KGFK AND KBJI, BUT WILL LIKELY ADJUST AS FOG
DEVELOPS OR DOES NOT OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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