606
FXUS63 KFGF 201920
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST CHANCE EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FOR NORTHWEST
MN.
- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A DRY PERIOD AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER WY WILL PUSH OUT INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT, WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
OUR AREA, BUT ALL MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY EAST, ALLOWING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER OUR CWA. WHILE CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, IT WILL BE HAMPERED BY
HIGHER CLOUDS AND A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING. RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCES
ARE UP AGAINST THE ESCARPMENT OR TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME UPSLOPE. THE UPPER LOW PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BLOCKY RIDGING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CAN'T REALLY PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT, BUT TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
..FROST CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK, CLOUDS LOOK TO BE DECREASING FOR AT LEAST SOME
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT, AND A BIT DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST. PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 36 DEGREES RANGE FROM
BELOW 20 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA, BUT GET
UP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER.
ADVISORY LEVEL TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ARE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON EXACT CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
..NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY WILL
PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY
IS PRETTY WEAK AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG, SO SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO BE RAIN, WITH 40 TO 60 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SOME IFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND KTVF, BUT THAT SHOULD SCATTER
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OTHER TAF SITES HAVE ALREADY GONE
VFR. BIGGEST QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET FOG REDEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE, BUT
PERFORMED POORLY LAST NIGHT. BEST CHANCES THE HREF HAS FOR FOG
PROBABILITY AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF A MILE ARE AT KGFK
AND KBJI AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THINK THERE WILL BE FOG SOMEWHERE
WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE. FOR NOW HAVE 2-3SM VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS TOMORROW
MORNING AT KGFK AND KBJI, BUT WILL LIKELY ADJUST AS FOG
DEVELOPS OR DOES NOT OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page