058
FXUS63 KFGF 232012
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH MANY
AREAS LIKELY SEEING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEING IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, H5 FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS PERIOD, WITH CURRENTLY A
25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WEST. STARTING TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. OUTSIDE OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE THURSDAY.
LOW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IMPACTING ALL OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY AROUND 09 Z THURSDAY. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS 15-25% RANGE ACROSS THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page