973
FXUS63 KFGF 232338
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE TOTALS GREATER
THAN 0.25" LIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEING IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, H5 FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS PERIOD, WITH CURRENTLY A
25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-6SM WILL BE COMMON WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF DROPS BELOW 3SM. MVFR CEILINGS
(ALREADY AT KDVL) WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CEILINGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE REGION. IFR IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MANY
LOCATIONS THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ND.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH PERIODIC/LESS FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25KT. SURFACE
GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST ND
THURSDAY AND WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 12KT BY MIDDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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