972
FXUS63 KFGF 240450
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE TOTALS GREATER
THAN 0.25" LIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEING IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, H5 FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS PERIOD, WITH CURRENTLY A
25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS (3-6SM). RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 10-12Z AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SATURATION LINGERING IN NORTHWEST
MN MAY RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FOG THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS (ALREADY AT KDVL) WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH IFR CEILINGS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING. IFR IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL ND TOWARDS
KDVL. THE BACK EDGE OF WHERE CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WHERE A SURFACE LOW STALLS, AND A FRONTAL ZONE
SETS UP (MOSTLY LIKELY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). EAST OF
THIS FRONT LIGHT SOUTHERLY BL FLOW KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THAT PLACES KGFK, KFAR
WITHIN THE AREA WHERE AT LEAST MVFR AND MORE LIKELY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN NORTHWEST MN LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP (DEEPER IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE).
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH PERIODIC/LESS FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25KT. SURFACE
GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST ND
THURSDAY AND WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 12KT BY MIDDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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