615
FXUS63 KFGF 241724
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END THIS MORNING, WITH
MODERATE TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.25" LIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
AS EXPECTED, GETTING SOME DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN
THAT IS JUST EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. NOT EVERYWHERE, BUT
ENOUGH SPOTS TO CONTINUE SOME POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL WILL
FALL. FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT WHERE WILL BE THE
MOST DENSE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEING IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, H5 FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS PERIOD, WITH CURRENTLY A
25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000
FT AND SOME PATCHY BR AND EVEN DRIZZLE LINGERING AT THE TAF
SITES BEHIND THE DEPARTING RAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL GO BACK DOWNHILL TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 1000
FT CEILINGS ARE 70 TO 100 PERCENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA ACCORDING
TO THE HREF, AND CHANCES FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY ARE
SIMILAR ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE LOWEST VISIBILITY WILL BE AND IF THERE WILL BE FOG OR
MORE LOW STRATUS, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A GIVEN AND THERE
WILL BE LIKELY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT SOME AIRPORTS, BUT STRATUS AND EVEN FOG WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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