959
FXUS63 KFGF 242336
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING RAIN
SHOWERS.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEHIND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE
DEPARTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING
IN LATE FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFF INTO NORTHERN MN AND THEN CANADA, LEAVING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE COMING IN MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH A DECENT SURFACE LOW
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH EXACT TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MID-WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
..FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND COULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, FOG WILL QUICKLY FILL IN AND SEVERAL
OF THE CAMS SHOW A FAIRLY DENSE BAND FROM THE COOPERSTOWN AREA
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE THE
WORST OF THE FOG FURTHER WEST, AND EXACTLY WHERE THE LINE
BETWEEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HREF HAS
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN A MILE OR EVEN HALF A MILE
IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, SO KEPT
THE AREAS OF FOG MENTION THERE AND PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE ELSE.
HOW MANY AREAS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF A MILE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, SO WILL KEEP OUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL LIKELY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
..RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS OVER 60 PERCENT, BUT DROPS OFF QUICKLY FOR OVER HALF AN INCH.
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE COULD
BRING A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER, BUT NOTHING ELSE IMPACTFUL. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD BRING A MORE
INTERESTING SETUP, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MACHINE LEARNING
HAVING A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. OTHERS HAVE THE TRACK OF
THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP
SETTING UP. WHILE CHANCES OF SEVERE ARE NOT HIGH, THERE IS OVER
A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN SEEMS
LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH MVFR
STRATUS IN EASTERN ND, AND A CLEARING REGION WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED AT KDVL. THERE BE BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KGFK AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
AREA IS JUST TO THE WEST, BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AND STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN WITH IFR
AND LIFR STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION. AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG IMPACTS (3-6SM) ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE AREAS OF
CURRENT STRATUS, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR VISIBILITY FROM FOG
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THERE SHOULD
BE POCKETS OF FOG 1SM OR LESS THAT DEVELOP WHERE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT IT AND THIS IS MORE LIKELY TOWARDS KDVL
DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.
IMPROVING TRENDS FROM IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, HOWEVER
WHEN/IF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IS TOUGHER. SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP LOWER LEVEL MIXING, BUT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE MOIST PATTERN MVFR STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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