086
FXUS63 KFGF 250437
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG MAY IMPACT THE COMMUTE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEHIND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE
DEPARTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING
IN LATE FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFF INTO NORTHERN MN AND THEN CANADA, LEAVING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE COMING IN MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH A DECENT SURFACE LOW
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH EXACT TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MID-WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
..FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND COULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THAT
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, FOG WILL QUICKLY FILL IN AND SEVERAL
OF THE CAMS SHOW A FAIRLY DENSE BAND FROM THE COOPERSTOWN AREA
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE THE
WORST OF THE FOG FURTHER WEST, AND EXACTLY WHERE THE LINE
BETWEEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HREF HAS
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN A MILE OR EVEN HALF A MILE
IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, SO KEPT
THE AREAS OF FOG MENTION THERE AND PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE ELSE.
HOW MANY AREAS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF A MILE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, SO WILL KEEP OUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL LIKELY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
..RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS OVER 60 PERCENT, BUT DROPS OFF QUICKLY FOR OVER HALF AN INCH.
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE COULD
BRING A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER, BUT NOTHING ELSE IMPACTFUL. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD BRING A MORE
INTERESTING SETUP, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MACHINE LEARNING
HAVING A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. OTHERS HAVE THE TRACK OF
THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP
SETTING UP. WHILE CHANCES OF SEVERE ARE NOT HIGH, THERE IS OVER
A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN SEEMS
LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LIFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN, WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES EXPECTED.
VLIFR VISIBILITY (1/4SM) DUE TO DENSE FOG IS MORE LIKELY IN THE
KDVL AREA OF NORTHEAST ND WHERE SKIES ORIGINALLY REMAINED CLEAR
AND BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. FOG SHOULD CLEAR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15KT FRIDAY MORNING, AND IFR CEILINGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT
TO MVFR. THE PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD
FRIDAY, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP
FRIDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT (BETTER CHANCES AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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