757
FXUS63 KFGF 260433
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE RAIN EVENTS MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND HARVEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST
TONIGHT, WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT
SHORTWAVE WILL HEAD OFF INTO NORTHERN MN/ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL COME OUT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ARRIVING IN THE ROCKIES
OR WESTERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MID-WEEK. AFTER THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE. THE MAJORITY (37 PERCENT) OF THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER CLUSTERS WITH EITHER BROAD
RIDGING OR EVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF LOW POPS AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
..RAIN TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PROVIDE
SOME LIFT FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AROUND THE TENTH OF
AN INCH TO PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE. HOWEVER, WITH
SOME WEAK MU CAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS AND WITH SHOWERS
AIDING MIX DOWN CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH OR SO AT TIMES. A BIT OF A BREAK ON SUNDAY, THEN THE
STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK, BUT SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION SETTING UP OVER
NORTHEASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES OF AMOUNTS
OVER 1 INCH IN THIS AREA ARE 60 TO 70 PERCENT, AND THERE IS EVEN
SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2 INCHES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A SOAKING RAIN SEEMS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH COULD STILL BE
SOME VARIATIONS IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SET UP
BEFORE THE PERIOD ARRIVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CEILINGS (3500-5000 FT AGL) HAVE RETURNED BRIEFLY TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN ND AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN, WHILE IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE IN THE KDVL AREA. AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
WESTERN ND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR
THEN IFR CEILINGS RETURNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN WEST TO EAST.
THERE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE IMPROVEMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL ND
TOWARDS KDVL ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE SATURDAY
EVENING, HOWEVER EAST OF THIS IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CEILINGS (300-400 FT AGL) AND
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-16KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND
25KT MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY, DECREASING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST (10KT OR LESS).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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