279
FXUS63 KFGF 101205
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. NEAR CRITIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DISCUSSION AMONG THE NWS OFFICES IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN PARTS OF MINNESOTA, NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
APPARENTLY TRAVIS AT MIFC WOULD LIKE SPS FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO RH VALUES LESS THAN 35 PCT AND
WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR HIGHER. SO SPS WAS DONE ROUGHLY PARK RAPIDS
TO MOORHEAD AND SOUTH. IN NORTH DAKOTA, THE STATE FIRE WEATHER
OFFICE PREFERS NO SPS, BUT INSTEAD MAKE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
THAT WAS DONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THIS PATTERN
AMPLIFIES, BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH, WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
LIKELY. AN H5 TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, USHERING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THIS FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION,
WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WARM DAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH HEADING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL SOMEWHAT LARGE AT THIS TIME, WITH
A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL QPF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY IN SOUTHEAST ND THRU WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS KFAR AND
KBJI WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS FERGUS FALLS AREA. GFK TVF AND DVL
WILL SEE A BIT LESS WIND WITH LESS GUSTS AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LESS. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST ND TONIGHT AND
MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING IWTH WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS SPREADING
IN VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO NE ND AND FAR NW MN IN THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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