886
FXUS63 KFGF 140752
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY CLEARING SOUTHWARD THRU SW MANITOBA
WITH CLEARING AREA HEADED TOWARD BOTTINEAU AND MEANWHILE THE
WEST TO EAST CLEARING THAT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HAS
STALLED. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD
IN THE WESTERN FCST AREA THAT WAS UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL ABOVE 32F DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONFIDENCE
HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN SO DID CANCEL THE FREEZE WARNING WE HAD
OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 40S OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW
PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST, THEN
NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR BRINGS OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE. IF CLOUDS ARE
SLOWER TO CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARM ENOUGH TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING.
..ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, RH VALUES FALL
INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COMBINED WINDS AND
LOW RH VALUES, ALTHOUGH SUPPORTING SCENARIOS ARE FEWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AS CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS ADDED SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD SPEED, THUS
SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE FIRE RISK.
..TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. WE
ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A SCENARIO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER, WHICH
SERVES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP. IT IS ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN, WITH THE BACK EDGE OVER WESTERN ND. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH TRENDS
SEEMING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. IN ANY CASE, VFR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY, THOUGH IT MAY BE MORE TOWARDS
LATE MORNING IN EASTERN ND AND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (OR
EARLY EVENING) ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS THE
TRENDS OF SLOWER GUIDANCE THAT HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE PATTERN A
BIT BETTER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE CLOSER TO 10KT IN CENTRAL ND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO THE WEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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