514
FXUS63 KFGF 141814
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THUS FAR TODAY. UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL, BUT WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY EVENING. VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WEAK, TRANSIENT,
RIDGING BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
..BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS. AT THIS
TIME, THE SIGNAL IS CONSISTENTLY STRONG, HOWEVER, WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S, BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A BETTER
CHANCE OF UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
REMAINS QUITE PERSISTENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF
WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH SIGNS OF CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 KNOTS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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