759
FXUS63 KFGF 142326
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THUS FAR TODAY. UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL, BUT WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY EVENING. VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WEAK, TRANSIENT,
RIDGING BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
..BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS. AT THIS
TIME, THE SIGNAL IS CONSISTENTLY STRONG, HOWEVER, WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S, BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A BETTER
CHANCE OF UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ARRIVE IN THE KDVL AREA. HOWEVER, THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT MVR STATUS AREA IS STILL SLOWER TO
ERODE IN EASTERN ND THAN GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND PESSIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO LINGER THIS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BECOMES MORE LIKELY DUE TO A MORE DEFINITIVE
SHIFT IN SURFACE PATTERN/WINDS. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN RETURNING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR STRATUS TO THE REGION (IFR MORE LIKELY AT KDVL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON). THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY PERSIST.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INCREASING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS 30KT OR
HIGHER LIKELY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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