238
FXUS63 KFGF 162320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS LEFT US WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES
TODAY, AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SHIFTING THROUGH EASTERN
ND, QUICKLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY
SKIES AREA WIDE. THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. THE
COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN, WHERE A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30
DEGREES.
OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, LEADING
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OF THESE VALUES (OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER BY WEDNESDAY) WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE NBM SHOWS HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN THIS LONG STRETCH OF DRY/WARM WEATHER, WITH
ONLY A 2 TO 4 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILES EACH DAY. THIS AGREEMENT MAKES SENSE
CONCEPTUALLY DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND TROUGHS/LOWS MORE OR LESS OVER EACH OF
CONUS'S COASTS. THERE ARE SIGNS LATE IN THE WEEK OF A TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS AND STARTS TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, HOW THIS EVOLVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
SO AT THIS TIMEFRAME THE FORECAST FEATURES A SMATTERING OF LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY.
..FREEZE TONIGHT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN WEST
CENTRAL MN, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING SURFACE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE WINDS PICK UP
QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET, INCREASING MIXING, LIKELY KEEPING US A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THEN WE OTHERWISE WOULD BE. DUE TO
HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA, TEMPERATURES, WHILE
CHILLY, SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
DUE TO A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. THESE SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP MIX THE LOW
LEVELS ELIMINATING ANY POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AT TAF
SITES. A LOW LEVEL JET (35-45KT) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MNZ029>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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