639
FXUS63 KFSD 160454
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (60%-90%) RETURN FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE DECREASING, LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES (10%- 30%) WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT: EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME LAST REMAINING STRATUS/FOG JUST OFF TO EAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING, WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY INTO THE 50 AND
LOWER 60S. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES REVEAL THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY,
SO IT'S NOT TOTALLY UNSURPRISING WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTHWARDS THAT SCATTERED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29
ARE EVEN REACHING/EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
WINDS, THEY ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING INTO THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT (SPG) REMAINS TIGHTENED. GIVEN THE MIXY CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TEMPERATURES DO HAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OF WIGGLE ROOM.
SATURDAY: SATURDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO CENTRAL ND, WITH THE
ATTACHED COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF CHAMBERLAIN, SD BY 6 AM. WINDS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ALONG AND EAST OF I-29) WILL
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION MIXES OUT,
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE BREEZY WINDS
DON'T STICK AROUND FOR TOO LONG AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARDS, CAUSING THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BE DECREASING FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT DON'T LOOK TOO BREEZY WITH MOST GUSTS IN THE 20S, THOUGH
LOWER 30S CAN'T BE RULED OUT YET. WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
PAST THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WON'T BE TOO AFFECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE REGION. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD SUGGEST EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW IOWA, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE
REGION DRY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY LOOK TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S, COLDEST WEST OF I-29.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ANOTHER
CHILLY START IS ON THE HORIZON AS MOST AREAS WAKE UP TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING (T=32 DEGREES) TO START THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE, EXPECT MORE
MILD TEMPERATURES AS DAILY HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
FROM HERE, THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE TOWARDS FREEZING FOR THE
NIGHT. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, EXPECT THE QUIETER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING WAA. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A WELL AGREED UPON ULL SWINGS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING OUR
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60%-90%) FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT 15.12Z GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR RAIN AS THE
SURFACE COMPONENT OF THE LOW SWINGS NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND WESTERN IOWA.
THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW WITH THE BETTER WAA REGIME AND PVA.
WITH THIS IN MIND, MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%-60%) IN AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EAST OF I-29. BY
TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE
ULL LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. FROM
HERE, COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EXPECT SUB-
FREEZING WIND CHILLS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY-81. WITH
THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS!
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ULL PHASES INTO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY BECOMING AN ULL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
CHANCES ARE LOW (<30%), A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BEING ALONG THE HWY-14
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO DECREASE WITH
EACH MODEL RUN; ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING OR LESS. LASTLY, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S WILL LEAD TO CHILLIER
CONDITIONS ON BOTH DAY SO MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP THE KIDDOS AND
TO DRESS WARMLY WHERE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS BENEATH A STOUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
DIMINISHES BY 14-15Z SATURDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY GUSTS 25-30+KT
QUICKLY DEVELOP THEREAFTER AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUMBS/APT
AVIATION...JH
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