777
FXUS63 KFSD 161728
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1128 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (70%-100%) RETURN FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-29. WHILE THE THREAT OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE, LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES (10-30%) WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW PRESSURE FLIES BY TO THE NORTH TODAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE TO VERY MILD DAYS THIS WEEKEND. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY TONIGHT AND
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S, THEN A DECENT MIXING WESTERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH IT AS WELL AS A
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS DEEP, INSTABILITY IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO GENERATE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT INSTABILITY FAR TO WEAK TO
SUPPORT LEGITIMATE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
ARE SOME DECENT RAINFALL RATES, SO DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKELY. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE IS RUNNING 100% FOR A HALF AN
INCH OR MORE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81, WHILE THE CHANCES FOR AN
INCH OR MORE ARE RUNNING ABOUT 60-90% SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO
MARSHALL MN LINE. THE GEFS PROBABILITIES RE LOWER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST, BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD CHANCES. THE BILK OF THIS
RAINFALL COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE STILL VERY AGREEABLE ON LIFTING THIS WAVE TO THE
NORTH, WRAPPING IT UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHIFTING THE
ENERGY EAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTH OF I-90, BUT FOR NOW AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEAR-SURFACE
FEATURE, BREEZIER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...GUMBS
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