783
FXUS63 KFSD 162348
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (70%-100%) RETURN FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE DECREASING, LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES (10%-20%) WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
REST OF THE EVENING/TONIGHT: ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY
CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE CONTINUES WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEAR-SURFACE BOUNDARY,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. FROM HERE,
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT DECREASING OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: HEADING INTO SUNDAY, COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH A TIGHTENING SPG LEADING TO A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. WITH SOME LINGERING COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF OUR RIVER VALLEYS. FROM
HERE, WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN HEADING
INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR
THE FIST HALF OF MONDAY, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR THE DAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A
TOUCH BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH A WAA REGIME
IN PLACE ALOFT, EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ULL WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (70%-100%) FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AT 16.12Z GUIDANCE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. AS THE ULL LIFTS INTO OUR REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE WAA REGIME WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LOOKING LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COMPONENT OF THE LOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (30%-70%) IN QPF EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO MARSHALL, MN LINE. FROM HERE, EXPECT
ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ULL LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, THE
DREARY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER STRONGER
PUSH OF CAA MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. LASTLY, THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
IN THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS ESPECIALLY TO START THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONSIDER DRESSING IN LAYERS
WHEN PREPARING FOR THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF
THE WEEK, MORE COOL AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL ON TAP BY
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING ALOFT, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARDS
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ULL PHASES INTO AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY BECOMING ANOTHER ULL
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS BACK SOUTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS OUR AREA, INCREASING MOISTURE AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE ULL COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
(10%-20%) MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON OVERALL AMOUNTS,
GEPS/EURO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES
(75%-95%) IN 0.50" AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR LESS. WHILE THESE
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS MOVING FORWARD AS EVEN A TOUCH MORE OF MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOOKING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND AS DAILY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S. LASTLY, WITH A MOSTLY RIDGY PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS; OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET, BUT A TRAILING
PUSH OF COOLER AIR MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-90, BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25-30KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND AGAIN A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 20-25+KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
AREAS NORTH OF I-90, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD HIGHWAY 14 COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACCOMPANY THE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUMBS
AVIATION...JH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page