654
FXUS63 KFSD 191731
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1131 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 FROM 7 AM TODAY
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
- SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE (20-40%) NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MINNESOTA, WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 20. SHOULD SEE THESE GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COMING
HOURS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS
ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WILL SEE THE SPG TIGHTEN IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, RESULTING IN BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY
HAVE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 40 TO 55 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF I-29, WITH
AREAS EAST RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH. THUS, AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY, WHICH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TODAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY, TO INCLUDE THE I-
29 CORRIDOR. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
PEAK IN THE 40S.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OUR
PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY DECENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW
AND BACK DOWN INTO THE REGION, THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES (20-
40%) FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HURON-SIOUX FALLS-SPIRIT LAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN THOUGH, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
TO 50 MPH WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FALLING SNOW, CAUSING MOST IF NOT
ALL FLAKES TO SHRED. LATEST BLEND KEEPS OUR QPF RATHER LIGHT,
RESULTING IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING AND JUST OVER
AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. NONETHELESS,
WANT TO EMPHASIS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE THE WHOLE STORY,
AS STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH ANY FALLING SNOW WILL RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. WHILE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOWPACK AND LIGHT SNOW,
ENCOURAGE YOU TO STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH COLDER, AS EFFICIENT CAA
KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY CRISP
DURING THIS TIME, AS VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
- SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP BEFORE HEADING OUTSIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S TO 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS LARGELY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY STRETCH FROM
NEAR KHON TO HALF WAY BETWEEN KFSD/KSUX AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. THUS, EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AT KHON/KFSD
THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CUMULUS IN THE
CLEARING MAY SLOW THE DECREASE). OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. THAT INCREASE, AND EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT KHON/KFSD, ARE DRIVEN BY A SECOND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND CONTINUED A PROB30 AT KHON, WHERE
THE CHANCES ARE THE GREATEST FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...SRF
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