291
FXUS63 KFSD 202354
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
554 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTS FROM
40 TO 50 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH MORE LOCALIZED AND
ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS IN SC SOUTH DAKOTA.
- LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND LINGERS OVER SW
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
LIGHT, BUT WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND ICY BRIDGES AND
ROADS.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES REACH BACK TOWARDS NORMAL (LOW 40S), BY
THE WEEKEND.
- PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING,
POTENTIALLY SUGGESTING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST; HOWEVER,
HAVE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN A DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS, THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO/ABOVE 45
MPH WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH WE
LOSE PEAK MIXING, SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW WINDS THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA PERIODICALLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
THUS, WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS. NO CHANGES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO LESSEN BY THE
HOUR. AFTER A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN SD WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN, FURTHER
SOUTH, A FEW LOCATIONS FROM DE SMET TO HOWARD AND MADISON WILL
END UP WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. MOST LOCATIONS HOWEVER HAVE
EXPERIENCED AT LEAST FLURRIES TO A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY. WINDS
HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE STRATUS THINS. ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS AND WITHIN THE
CLEARING OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SD, MORE IMPRESSIVE GUSTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN, WITH REPORTS OF 60+ MPH WINDS NEAR GREGORY AND
PLATTE SD.
TONIGHT: WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW A COMPACT LOBE OF VORTICITY OVER
NORTHWESTERN MN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN DPVA SHOULD LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF MINOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRATUS THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND EASTERN SD
INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS WAVE MAY
KEEP THE PERSISTENT STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE A BIT
DEEPER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 03Z.
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS TO BE CANCELED EARLY. THE REMAINING HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE MODIFIED TO A WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY
ALSO CONTINUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REASONABLE SNOW AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR MORE, SO HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AND WITH MIXY WINDS CONTINUING WE MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THURSDAY: MID-LVL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SPG THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE
AREA. EVEN THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUN THROUGH THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 20S AND END UP IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY: SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE RESULT WILL BE EITHER
SOME SHALLOW FOG FORMATION, BUT ALSO LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF WEAK LOW-LVL WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: UPPER TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INDUCES SLIGHTLY STRONGER RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER ON SATURDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN NEBRASKA
AND MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH A COUPLE DEGREES UPWARDS, BUT
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS HIGHS CLIMB JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL (LOW 40S). THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING EARLY ON IN
THE DAY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 40S, BUT POTENTIAL FOR FALLING
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS AS STRONGER LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION
COMMENCES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES FLIP BACK BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
20S ON MONDAY AND THE 30S ON TUESDAY. TAKING A PEEK AHEAD IN THE
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY TREND TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN INTO THANKSGIVING. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CAN BRING
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREQUENT, FAST MOVING WAVES WITH RATHER
POOR PREDICTABILITY, THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MVFR AND LOWER END VFR STRATUS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EAST. ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN IMPROVEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, A MAJORITY OF THE SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER END VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY - HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITHIN THE STRATUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS; LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
(BELOW 2 MILES).
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. WINDS SLOWLY TAPER
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS WANING AFTER SUNSET.
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ039-
054-055.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SG
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