109
FXUS63 KFSD 172336
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE A DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (50%+) ON THURSDAY. STRONG
WINDS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS CAN
STILL CHANGE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER DENDRITIC FORCING HAS WEAKENED BUT REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS FALLING ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW,
HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE WILL SEE ANOTHER DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIGHT TO MARGINALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS AREAS WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, COLDEST ALONG HIGHWAY-14.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE RIDGING
SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH TURN THEM FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 0C, WHICH
MIXED TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 40-60% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN DAY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING A STRAIGHT 100% CHANCE FOR LIQUID QPF TO EXCEED A TENTH OF
AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THIS AREA. MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THIS WAVE REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH WHICH COULD INCREASE OR
DECREASE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, THE
GRADIENT LIES ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THIS PRECIPITATION MAY TRACK
BUT THEY SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF LIQUID QPF, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE OTHER ASPECT
TO THURSDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WINDS UP TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, DETAILS CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. IF THESE WINDS DO COME TO
FRUITION, THEN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS WITHIN THE STRONG WINDS.
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 30S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
NO BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS AS THEY
SHOW A 40-80% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 40F ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>=80% CHANCE) TO PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD OF
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CLEARING NOTED IN AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WILL STILL SEE
IFR TO MVFR CIGS LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS AND VFR LEVELS TO
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-
040-054>056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
052-053-057>059.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SST
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