809  
FXUS63 KFSD 180455  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1055 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG  
AND NORTH OF I-90, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREAS  
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE A DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (50%+) ON THURSDAY. STRONG  
WINDS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION BUT DETAILS CAN  
STILL CHANGE.  
 
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES  
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER DENDRITIC FORCING HAS WEAKENED BUT REMAINS  
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS FALLING ALONG AND NORTH  
OF I-90. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS ALONG  
AND NORTH OF I-90 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW,  
HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
INTERSTATE WILL SEE ANOTHER DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE  
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIGHT TO MARGINALLY BREEZY  
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
ACROSS AREAS WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL  
TO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, COLDEST ALONG HIGHWAY-14.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE RIDGING  
SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE  
LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH TURN THEM FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO OUT OF  
THE SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 0C, WHICH  
MIXED TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW  
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE  
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.  
AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 40-60% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A  
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE  
TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN DAY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS  
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE.  
HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO  
RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN PERSISTENT IN  
SHOWING A STRAIGHT 100% CHANCE FOR LIQUID QPF TO EXCEED A TENTH OF  
AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THIS AREA. MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE  
TRACK OF THIS WAVE REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH WHICH COULD INCREASE OR  
DECREASE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, THE  
GRADIENT LIES ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE  
SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THIS PRECIPITATION MAY TRACK  
BUT THEY SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH  
OF LIQUID QPF, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE OTHER ASPECT  
TO THURSDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WINDS UP TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.  
HOWEVER, DETAILS CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. IF THESE WINDS DO COME TO  
FRUITION, THEN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS WITHIN THE STRONG WINDS.  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.  
850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD COLD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING TO THE TEENS TO MID  
20S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES  
BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER  
TEENS TO LOW 30S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.  
 
NO BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE  
30S AND 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS AS THEY  
SHOW A 40-80% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 40F ALONG THE  
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>=80% CHANCE) TO PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD OF  
TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST  
OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. SHOULD SEE  
THIS DIMINISH IN THE COMING HOURS, ALLOWING QUIET CONDITIONS TO  
RETURN. THAT BEING SAID, WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO MVFR CIGS LINGER FOR  
A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS DURING THIS TIME LOOK  
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, LOOK  
FOR VFR LEVELS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TURN A BIT BREEZY  
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH  
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...MEYERS  
AVIATION...SST  
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