813
FXUS63 KFSD 190845
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-90 THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR
LESS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE THE JAMES VALLEY
EAST. FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS MAY BE AS COLD AS 10 BELOW
ZERO.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
- CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL TROUBLES REMAINS VERY LOW FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST AND WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. SOME SNOWFALL
SHOULD LINGER NEAR AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. BY 9 AM THIS
MORNING, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG HIGHWAY 14. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND
EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
AS THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY WEST OF YANKTON. SOUTHWEST MN SHOULD SEE
THE LEAST WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT STILL LIKELY GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
WHAT MAY BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS A MIX OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS. ALSO A CONCERN THAT NEAR AND EAST
OF A ROUGHLY BROOKINGS TO LUVERNE TO STORM LAKE LINE A SLIGHTLY MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE 700MB
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL AS THAT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A MILE
OR LESS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW PERSISTENT AND LONG LASTING THE
LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY BE AND FOR NOW THE POTENTIALLY MORE
PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE LESS WINDY LOCATIONS WHILE
THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE STRONGER WIND AREAS.
BY THIS EVENING THE SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE TEENS. A WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT FOR NOW IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S TO MID 30S. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON
SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT
SOME HINTS THAT THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
COULD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO FOR NOW NOT A BIG
CONCERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
TOWARDS WESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST, A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET, AND/OR LIGHT SNOW, WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THIS
WILL MOSTLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHERE A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO HALF
AN INCH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, POSSIBLY CLOSER TO AN INCH FOR AREAS
NEAR THE MARSHALL, MN AREA.
WINDS PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, GUSTING 45 TO 60 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CORRECTIONVILLE, IA TO SIOUX FALLS, SD
TO HURON, SD, STRONGEST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT SEE
OR HAVE SEEN RECENT SNOW ACCUMULATION, LEADING TO POSSIBLE
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ038-052>054-059>062-065>067.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068>071.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...APT
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