139
FXUS63 KFSD 191702
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1102 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON - MAINLY
I-90 AND NORTH.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR
LESS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS SHOULD BE THE JAMES VALLEY
EAST. FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS MAY BE AS COLD AS 10 BELOW
ZERO.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
- CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL TROUBLES REMAINS VERY LOW FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST AND WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. SOME SNOWFALL
SHOULD LINGER NEAR AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. BY 9 AM THIS
MORNING, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG HIGHWAY 14. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AND
EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
AS THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY WEST OF YANKTON. SOUTHWEST MN SHOULD SEE
THE LEAST WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT STILL LIKELY GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
WHAT MAY BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS A MIX OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS. ALSO A CONCERN THAT NEAR AND EAST
OF A ROUGHLY BROOKINGS TO LUVERNE TO STORM LAKE LINE A SLIGHTLY MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE 700MB
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL AS THAT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A MILE
OR LESS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW PERSISTENT AND LONG LASTING THE
LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY BE AND FOR NOW THE POTENTIALLY MORE
PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE LESS WINDY LOCATIONS WHILE
THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE STRONGER WIND AREAS.
BY THIS EVENING THE SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE TEENS. A WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT FOR NOW IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S TO MID 30S. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON
SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT
SOME HINTS THAT THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
COULD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO FOR NOW NOT A BIG
CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW - WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
AT TIMES - WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-052>054-
059>062-065>067.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-
058-063-064-068>071.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JM
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