002
FXUS63 KFSD 192100
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON - MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN I-90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH. SNOW WILL BE DONE BY LATE EVENING.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR
LESS - PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST MN. FRIDAY MORNING WIND
CHILLS MAY BE AS COLD AS 15 BELOW ZERO.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
- CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL TROUBLES REMAINS VERY LOW FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. LIGHT,
TO AT TIMES MODERATE, SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBS ARE INDICATING THE MORE
INTENSE SNOW CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST MN - THIS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THAT AREA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THAT AREA (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT) HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WINDS OVER THIS AREA HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AS LOW AS 3/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ARE NOW BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE "HEAVIER" SNOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
EVEN AS SNOW ENDS BY THIS EVENING, ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW SOME BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH 06Z - WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING EARLY IF CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.
BACK TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA, STRONG WINDS - GUSTING 45 TO 60 MPH -
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL IS LIGHTER (AND
ACCUMULATIONS LESS) BACK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD, WITH THE STRONG
WINDS MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER, AS MIXING DECREASES AND WINDS ALOFT START
TO LOWER. IN LIGHT OF THAT, WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY, AND ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. RELATED TO THAT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A COLD NIGHT
AHEAD AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM. IN SPITE OF SOME CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -12 C,
HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AFTER THIS RECENT BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER, A PRETTY QUIET PATTERN
WILL SET UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BIGGEST TAKEAWAY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES -
ESPECIALLY IN SNOW FREE AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW
MOVING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK. ESAT ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PERIODICALLY APPROACHING OF EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY DURING THAT PERIOD. WITH THAT, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE SYSTEMS DO NOT LOOK
SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW - WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
AT TIMES - WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-052>054-
059>062-065>067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-
058-063-064-068>071.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
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