320
FXUS63 KFSD 200434
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1034 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE AREA OFF TO
OUR EAST, WITH SCATTERED SNOW ENDING OVERNIGHT.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WIND GUSTS COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR
LESS - PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST MN. FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS
MAY BE AS COLD AS 15 BELOW ZERO.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
- CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL TROUBLES REMAINS VERY LOW FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. LIGHT,
TO AT TIMES MODERATE, SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBS ARE INDICATING THE MORE
INTENSE SNOW CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST MN - THIS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THAT AREA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THAT AREA (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT) HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WINDS OVER THIS AREA HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AS LOW AS 3/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ARE NOW BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE "HEAVIER" SNOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
EVEN AS SNOW ENDS BY THIS EVENING, ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW SOME BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH 06Z - WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING EARLY IF CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.
BACK TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA, STRONG WINDS - GUSTING 45 TO 60 MPH -
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL IS LIGHTER (AND
ACCUMULATIONS LESS) BACK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD, WITH THE STRONG
WINDS MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER, AS MIXING DECREASES AND WINDS ALOFT START
TO LOWER. IN LIGHT OF THAT, WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY, AND ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. RELATED TO THAT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A COLD NIGHT
AHEAD AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM. IN SPITE OF SOME CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -12 C,
HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AFTER THIS RECENT BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER, A PRETTY QUIET PATTERN
WILL SET UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BIGGEST TAKEAWAY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES -
ESPECIALLY IN SNOW FREE AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW
MOVING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK. ESAT ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PERIODICALLY APPROACHING OF EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY DURING THAT PERIOD. WITH THAT, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE SYSTEMS DO NOT LOOK
SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE, SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ARE
ALSO DECREASING. HOWEVER, MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS CONTINUE AS
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND SNOW TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THE WINDS TRANSITION TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. AREAS NORTH
OF I-90 MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...APT
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