114
FXUS63 KFSD 201043
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR FAR EASTERN SD AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST MN.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL TROUBLES REMAINS VERY LOW
FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS YESTERDAY. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE DOWN, A COLD AIR
MASS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING A SKINNY BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW. MORE THAN LIKELY THE RADAR WILL SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RETURNS TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE THE DENDRITIC LAYER RESIDES, BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW. A FEW MODELS DO HINT AT A SMALL AREA THAT SATURATES THE LOW
LEVELS IN FAR EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN WHERE A SMALL BAND OF A
TENTH OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG,
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD
CREATE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS WITH RECENT SNOWS, MAINLY
SOUTHWEST MN.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND BRING
MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SATURDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A
REBOUND DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE UPPER
30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S OVER AREAS WITH DEEPER
SNOW COVER. A FAST MOVING BUT MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND DO LITTLE MORE THAN TURN WINDS TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION.
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
DEEPER TROUGHING TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THIS
ENERGY SHOWS NO NORTHERN STREAM JET WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT IF THIS
TROUGH DOES IN FACT DEEPEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MORE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WARM AIR IS ALLOWED TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA WITHOUT ANY ENERGY TO HELP TRAP SOME COLDER AIR IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
PATCHY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIT NORTHWEST IA AND
SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SMALL BAND OF
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN SD
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ARE A LITTLE LOW. FOR NOW EVEN WITHIN THE BAND OF
LIGHTER SNOW VFR CONDITIONS OR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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