895
FXUS63 KFSD 210452
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW
TO AREAS EAST OF I-29 INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIMINISHING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE MIDWEEK ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
REST OF THE EVENING/TONIGHT: TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE
COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUES WITH MOST AREAS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS OF 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS FOR THE DAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE OUR
LIMITED SNOW CHANCES (<30%) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TAKING
A LOOK AT RADAR, A LINE OF BROKEN FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG A BISMARK, ND TO PIERRE TO CHAMBERLAIN
LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
QUICK CLIPPER WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER RETURNS
SITUATED IN ND. AT THIS TIME, A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPING FLAKES IN CHECK. HOWEVER, AS THIS LINE PROGRESSES
EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING; BETTER
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TRACE TO A DUSTING WITH UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF FRESH SNOW POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH THIS
IN MIND, TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND A FEW PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE YOUR MAIN IMPACTS WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
COMING TO AN END BY 06Z TONIGHT. LASTLY, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: HEADING INTO THE THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUIETER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD. WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT AND THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A
10-15 DEGREE JUMP TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL NORMALS AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH THE MORE MILD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. FROM HERE, WINDS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. BY SUNDAY,
STRENGTHENING WAA AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL HELP US CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE DAY ACCORDING
TO THE ESAT TABLES. WITH THIS IN MIND, A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP ALONG A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER, IA LINE
WITH HIGHS VARYING BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF THIS
LINE AND HIGHS VARYING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH
OF THIS LINE. FROM HERE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE A
WEAK QUICK-CLIPPER WAVE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (<30%) AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, LIMITED
SATURATION IN THE DGZ WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS ISOLATED TO AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A FEW FLURRIES AT MOST TO START THE DAY
ON MONDAY WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. LASTLY, EXPECT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES.
MONDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE NEW WEEK, QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEK OF CHRISTMAS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH LINGERING COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT ABOVE
NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGHS VARY BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
40S WITH THE MILDEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
FROM HERE, THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY TUESDAY WILL
HELP OUR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SIT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS.
LOOKING ALOFT, A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM
CHRISTMAS DAY ONWARDS AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DIP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD LEADING TO RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
DEPENDING ON THEIR TIME OF ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, WITH A RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE; ITS A BIT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE TRAVELING TO VISIT FAMILY
FOR THE CHRISTMAS AND/OR NEW YEARS HOLIDAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA AS WE START THIS
TAF PERIOD, BUT THIS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z-08Z.
WHILE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE MOST PREVALENT AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ALONG/EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT, SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IN KFSD/KSUX TAFS, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 21/16Z, WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 15-25KT NEAR AND EAST OF US
HIGHWAY 81 THROUGH SUNSET.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUMBS
AVIATION...JH
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