512
FXUS63 KFSD 211726
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1126 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR HIGHWAY
14, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AND FOR NOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THIS COMING WEEK. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
(5-15% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION) WHILE THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA (20-40%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION).
- TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING A
WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES. THESE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 30 TO 35 ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 IN THE DEEPER SNOW TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
TO LOOK FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF ANY
PERCEPTION CAN REACH THE GROUND IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR HIGHWAY 14. NEAR HIGHWAY 14
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME FREEZING SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AN A TRACE OR LESS SO IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WHILE THE GEFS INDICATED A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.01" OF
PRECIPITATION THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE PUSHES THIS UP TOWARDS 50-60
PERCENT SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND MODELS
STILL INDICATING THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION IS VALID. A LARGER
TROUGH WILL WORK ONTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW. STILL LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 22.18Z AS CURRENT
STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL IA WILL REMAIN EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS.
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AN OCCASIONAL
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY GUST BETWEEN 16-20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED SUSTAINED WIND FROM 8-10 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT FORECAST. EVEN
IF CLOUDS MATERIALIZE, ANY CEILINGS WOULD BE WELL ABOVE 10 KFT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...ROGERS
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