461
FXUS63 KFSD 220859
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE (<20%) NEAR HIGHWAY
14 AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST MN NEAR AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE TONIGHT. FOR NOW AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PROBLEMS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THIS
COMING WEEK WITH VERY MILD LOWS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
- TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, THE SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. ONE EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TURNING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST, WHICH
ALLOWS FOR A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE OTHER EFFECT WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND THEN ROUGHLY NEAR AND EAST
OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. MID LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION REMAINS A
CHALLENGE. WILL MAINTAIN A ROUGHLY 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE
AREAS. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MAIN VORT LOBE
DROPS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND BRINGS A BIT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN, WITH THE MOISTURE A TOUCH DEEPER, BUT STILL STRUGGLING IN A
SMALL CORRIDOR IN THE MID LEVELS. REGARDLESS, IF PRECIPITATION CAN
DEVELOP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED
TO SLOWER TRAVEL TIMES.
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES COOLER AIR WILL LEAK IN FROM THE NORTH AND
QUITE A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY BULLISH ON PRODUCING STRATUS
FOR THE DAY MONDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS
AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT
JUST AS MILD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL BRING A
MAINLY RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST IA AND NORTHEAST NE. MILD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY BRINGING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AND STILL MAINLY RAIN. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT LOCATIONS
TOWARD HIGHWAY 14 MAY SEE MVFR-IFR STRATUS SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT CONTINUE IN AREAS
EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARD
25KT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE
APPROACH SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JH
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