859
FXUS63 KFSD 231747
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1147 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DIRECTLY AFTER
CHRISTMAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
(80-90% CHANCE) FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING, KEEPING
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN.
- TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LEAK INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATUS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA. SOME HINTS IN THE SOUNDINGS
THAT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN COULD CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AND THAT THE
STRATUS MAY BE FAIRLY THIN OR NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT LUCKILY WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOSTLY SOUTHWEST MN
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH
TO TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA, HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF THIS IS DUE
TO THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT LINGER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
FULLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE AT NIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.
TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TRENDS ALSO INDICATE
MAINLY RAIN FOR THIS EVENT, WITH SOME QUESTION ON AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
RAIN EAST OF I-29 AND MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE BOISTEROUS IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST. OVERALL THE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A HALF AN INCH IS PRETTY LOW
(LESS THAN 20%) AND MAINLY EAST OF I-29 WITH THE GFS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE BUT CLOSER TO I-29. THE MAIN STORY HERE THOUGH IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR ALL RAIN WITH NO WINTRY IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS SUNK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NOW COVERS MOST OF
THE REGION. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, THE LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE IN THE MVFR TO
IFR RANGE, WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS IN TO LIFR DUE TO TRANSIENT FOG
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS. OVERNIGHT, FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. IFR CEILINGS (POSSIBLY LOWER) AND
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD, WHEN THINGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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