112
FXUS63 KFSD 291738
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1138 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL CONTINUE WITH
THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN A LOW (<30%)
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20. RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
- SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LOOKING AT GOES SATELLITE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS, A BAND OF HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT AROUND 10 MPH.
TODAY: SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. LIGHT,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR HIGHS A TOUCH. STILL, 40S AND 50S ARE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AVERAGE FOR JANUARY 29TH IS
IN THE UPPER 20S, MEANING TODAY'S HIGHS ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTER NOON, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO UNSEASONABLY WARM, IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
THURSDAY: A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BETTER DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH, HOWEVER, THE GFS, EC, AND NAM ALL SHOW
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE RAIN. TOTALS WILL BE LOW, AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LESS THAN 30% PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. (MEASURABLE = 0.01") AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST
OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
AND THE CAA WILL KNOCK OUR HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
LOWS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND BRING A PUSH OF WAA, BUMPING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE
40S AND 50S.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ZONAL. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES BRING
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
CONSENSUS AMONG LONG TERM GUIDANCE LEAVES CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DETAILS LOW. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR A
LITTLE WHILE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
AND PUSHES OF COLD AIR BRING OUR HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE
SEASONABLE RANGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, VARIABLE AT OR BELOW
12KT, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TOPPED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
FOR KHON/KFSD OVERNIGHT.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 18, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE US HWY 20
CORRIDOR/KSUX, WILL SEE SOME LOWERING CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 30/18Z.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...JH
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