644
FXUS63 KFSD 301800
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1200 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN COOL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH (90+%)
PROBABILITY THAT RAINFALL, IF IT OCCURS, REMAINS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
THIS MORNING-TODAY: LOOKING AT GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS WE CAN
SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH FLOWING EAST-SOUTHEAST. TO
THE SOUTH WE CAN SEE AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BE
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS THEN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION FORMING
ALONG PERIPHERY VORTICITY BANDS ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PUSHING NORTH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20, AND MOSTLY EAST OF SIOUX CITY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS HELD STEADY WITH A 10-30% PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE (0.01
LIQUID EQUIVALENT) PRECIPITATION. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY TO STORM
LAKE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODERATELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER,
THAT MAY WORK TO FURTHER LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY
REACHES THE GROUND. ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TRACE TO 0.1". WHILE IT WILL
BE LIQUID AS IT FALLS, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING, SO WET PAVEMENT AND ROADWAYS MAY FREEZE
AND BECOME SLIPPERY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM, IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY: AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALOFT, A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN SINKS SOUTH. CAA IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES THERE INTO THE 0 TO -4 C RANGE. AT THE SURFACE WE CAN
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 30S TO 40S.
SATURDAY: AS THE EVENING APPROACHES, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOME
EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY. SOME MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FALLING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90, WITH THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-29 AND NORTH OF I-90 IN SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
MOST LIKELY FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE HERE, SO BE SURE YOU CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES. A STRONG PUSH OF WAA WILL BOOST AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN, IN THE MID 40S NORTH
OF I-90, AND 50S SOUTH.
SUNDAY: ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD, BUT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY, IN THE 40S. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE OUR LAST MILD DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MAKES ITS WAY EAST, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH IT. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, THAT MAY BEGIN AS RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. DETAILS ARE LACKING AT THIS POINT, AND SO CONFIDENCE IN
TRACK IS LOW. AS WE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL COOL TO
AROUND SEASONABLE, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE, IN THE 20S,
THEN TEENS. PERIODIC PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW,
IS POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE ZONAL
PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS LIFTING TOWARDS
KSUX AND IS SET TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP,
BUT LIKELY STAY IN VFR STATUS. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP
INTO MVFR AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE DEW POINT LATE TONIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME FOG MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW COVER, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND VERY PATCHY, AND THUS WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
KFSD AND KSUX, GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...ROGERS/SAMET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page