338
FXUS63 KFSD 302050
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
- A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
- A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S.
- NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER TO THE SOUTH HAS STRUGGLED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAINST A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO
THE 50S THROUGH 230 PM CST. WILL STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
BREAK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BEFORE SUNSET, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
12Z HREF ENSEMBLE BRIEFLY CLIPS AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 WITH A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS,
SHOWING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS NE/IA
STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AND INSTEAD GETTING STRETCHED
EAST TO WEST AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS KS/MO. WILL
MAINTAIN 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS,
BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COTEAU AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY LOW-LEVELS, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN ON
SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BOTTLED UP
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ND INTO CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MARSHALL TO SLAYTON IN
THE MORNING, BUT EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON, TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND ARE REINFORCED BY A PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT,
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO SD. TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER
THAN SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED IN WHICH THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A MARKED CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS MONDAY THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL,
MEANING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE 500 HPA SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. BOTTOM LINE
THERE ARE NO MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEMS ON THE WAY, BUT THE NBM
SUGGESTS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF 20-50 PERCENT POPS. UNTIL THESE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE BETTER RESOLVED, THESE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS LIFTING TOWARDS
KSUX AND IS SET TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP,
BUT LIKELY STAY IN VFR STATUS. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP
INTO MVFR AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE DEW POINT LATE TONIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME FOG MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW COVER, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND VERY PATCHY, AND THUS WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
KFSD AND KSUX, GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS/SAMET
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