931
FXUS63 KFSD 310443
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
- A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S.
- NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER TO THE SOUTH HAS STRUGGLED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAINST A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO
THE 50S THROUGH 230 PM CST. WILL STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
BREAK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BEFORE SUNSET, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
12Z HREF ENSEMBLE BRIEFLY CLIPS AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 WITH A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS,
SHOWING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS NE/IA
STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AND INSTEAD GETTING STRETCHED
EAST TO WEST AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS KS/MO. WILL
MAINTAIN 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS,
BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COTEAU AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY LOW-LEVELS, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN ON
SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BOTTLED UP
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ND INTO CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MARSHALL TO SLAYTON IN
THE MORNING, BUT EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON, TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND ARE REINFORCED BY A PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT,
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO SD. TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER
THAN SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED IN WHICH THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A MARKED CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS MONDAY THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL,
MEANING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE 500 HPA SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. BOTTOM LINE
THERE ARE NO MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEMS ON THE WAY, BUT THE NBM
SUGGESTS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF 20-50 PERCENT POPS. UNTIL THESE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE BETTER RESOLVED, THESE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF I-29 AND ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. FOR NOW,
HAVE KEPT PREVAILING STRATUS TO KHON WHERE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
MORE PERSISTENT. MAINTAINED SCT/FEW MENTION FOR KFSD/KSUX.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS - UNCERTAINTY IN LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE, WINDS, AND INCOMING PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS. IF
STRATUS OR FOG CAN DEVELOP, EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...SG
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