306
FXUS63 KFSD 011107
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
507 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. WHILE NOT
APPROACHING RECORDS, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY. GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I-29. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER AT TIMES.
- VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.
- SLIGHTLY GREATER RISKS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
>1" REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14.
- MORE TYPICAL EARLY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND SHOULD LIKELY BRING NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES. SOME HINT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SATURATION COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST MN AND POINTS NEARBY, BUT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OR TWO. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THIS WILL BE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN EFFECT THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE IS A RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND THAT WILL START
GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON EAST OF I-29 WHERE A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALBEIT LIKELY ONLY LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 30 TO 40 MPH, THEN THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
WINDS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY
MILD TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S. EAST OF I-29 CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES, BUT MORE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE
EXTENDED MILD PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH SOME
50S IN FAR SOUTHEAST SD, NORTHWEST IA AND NORTHEAST NE.
SUNDAY NIGHT A FAST MOVING, WEAK WAVE IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS A RESULT OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT SOME FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF SOME NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE ABOUT THE 850MB FRONT, BUT
THAT IS MAINLY THE NAM AND THE NAM IS A BIT DRY IN THAT LAYER.
SATURATION CLOSER TO THE 750 MB FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE
AREA WHICH PLACES MOST OF THE FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14.
ASSUMING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS MAIN FRONTAL
AREA SOME SPOTTY SHORT LIVED SNOW SHOWERS OR SMALLER BANDS OF SNOW
COULD LIFT NORTH AND MERGE WITH THIS BAND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT, ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS PLACE THE 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.01"
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RIGHT DOWN I-90. THE EC ENSEMBLE DROPS HIGHWAY 14
TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR 0.10" LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THE GEFS RIGHT
AROUND 50-60 PERCENT IN THIS AREA. SO, LONG STORY SHORT, NO BIG
CHANGES, BUT A TIGHTENING OF THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT ON BOTH ENSEMBLES
AND A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
MONDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
WITH A NORTH WIND ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE UNFOCUSED, BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS BROAD WARM ADVECTION COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FAIRLY FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. AMOUNTS DO APPEAR PRETTY LIGHT HOWEVER.
THIS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PARTS
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL DURING THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG
WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY VFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-056-062-067-071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020-021.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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